With just one weekend of football left to play, there are two area playoff contenders left.
For one, the situation is relatively clear. For the other, that is not nearly the case.
Let’s get right to the point:
n GENEVA — As I suggested it might last week, this one is going right down to the wire. The only twist from the Eagles’ point of view is that its final game of the regular season, its matchup at Gilmour Academy, won’t be played until Saturday afternoon.
As we have discussed, there are eight playoff spots available in each region, including Division II, Region 5, in which the Eagles currently sit in the eighth spot with 15.95 computer points. Four schools — Lake Catholic, West Geauga, Highland and Ashland — have clinched higher finishes than Geneva. That leaves 10 other teams (Howland, Aurora, Canfield, Ravenna, Walsh Jesuit, Cloverleaf, Kenston, Roosevelt, Copley and Revere) in the picture with the Eagles on some level. Geneva must finish at least fourth out of these 11.
If the Eagles win on Saturday, I would say they will likely finish with between 18.3 and 18.95 points. The Gilmour game is worth 1.35 points to them, so if they lose, that range becomes 16.95-17.6. Basically, what it comes down to is that if they defeat the Lancers, they have a reasonable chance that depends on many other outcomes. If they lose, they still have a shot, but the odds decrease significantly.
One of the more interesting situations embedded within all of this involves Aurora and Kenston, who face each other tonight at Aurora. If Aurora wins, it will finish ahead of Geneva and the Bombers will finish behind it. But if Kenston wins, both it and the Greenmen would both be neck-and-neck with Geneva, if it wins on Saturday.
At any rate, I see the Lakeside-North matchup as a potentially important one for the Eagles. A Dragon win would provide 0.6 second-level points to Geneva.
Eagle followers should also root for Kirtland over Newbury and Jefferson over University School. Madison over Riverside also, but as Geneva defeated both of them, the difference there would be only .05 points, and is attributable to the fact Riverside is in a bigger division.
n PERRY — After trying to sort all of that out, this should be refreshing. It’s very simple: If the Pirates win, they will make it. If they lose, although that alone will not eliminate them, their prospects become very unlikely.
There is just one problem with this, and that is that the team Perry must beat is Chagrin Falls, which has beaten all nine opponents, including the three to which the Pirates have already lost.
Perry is also situated in eighth place in its region (Division IV, Region 13) with 10.2 points.
Thanks to www.joeeitel.com, from which information was used that helped to determine some of the above.
Goldman is a freelance writer from South Euclid. Reach him at steve558@roadrunner.com.
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STEVE GOLDMAN
Discussion
A Steve Goldman column: Eagles’ situation kind of fuzzy
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Scholastic Statistics:
WRESTLING
NON-CONFERENCE
Riverside 31, Edgewood 28
at Edgewood -
Scholastic Schedule:
FRIDAY, FEB. 10
Boys Basketball
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n PV at Bloomfield
n Grand Valley at Southington
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